A question I see being raised more and more often on internet forums is, ‘Are we headed for a drought this summer?’
Well, I’m no expert, but I’m certainly worried. There are good reasons to think we might well be headed for the worst drought since 1976. To take them all in turn:
1) We’ve had a dry winter, dominated by freezing high pressure that kept the wet away, topped off by a very dry, hot spring. I have a very good memory, for all it doesn’t go back very far, and last month was the driest March I can remember – just one day of serious rain in the latter part of the month. This month is no better – indeed, so far it’s worse. I’ve had to start watering my garden far earlier than I expected. The River Severn, I noticed yesterday, was well down on its normal spring levels. That’s not a good situation to be in heading in to the driest part of the year.
2) The weather systems that brought us damp and eastern Australia drought over the last few years flipped into abrupt reverse this winter, with dreadful flooding in Queensland’s summer. That would suggest we might get the weather they missed. (Before anyone says anything, I know things are still bad in Western Australia. That’s not really germane to the matter at hand.)
3) We’ve had a hard winter. Historically, since the 17th century they are more often than not followed by benign summers – if you can call a drought benign.
One acquaintance of mine has predicted that without a fortnight’s rain we are heading for bad trouble. It’s quite possible – apart from anything else, local drought in this country will push our food prices higher, further driving inflation and complicating our already dire economic situation. The same happens with drought in Russia or China, but they tend to affect everyone rather than us in particular. If we have droughts in the major food-producing areas of the world, coupled with the economic crisis and high oil prices, then turmoil, bread riots, water wars and probably a few states collapsing entirely is not just likely but damn near certain. Even apart from its economic effects, hot weather, by depriving people of sleep and by forcing them outside much more, tends to cause trouble on its own. The French Revolution happened after several failed harvests and a heatwave. The poll tax riots occurred in an unusually hot summer. This summer, government cuts begin…
I don’t know whether we’re in for a hot, dry summer. But I’m worried. I hope – but given their past performance I’m none too confident – that the water companies are worried too. An honourable exception should be made – Northern Ireland Water, who after a heavy freeze burst so many water pipes that the reservoir levels fell to dangerous lows, warned of a high risk of drought without heavy rain. I’ve seen nothing from the others although I’d like to be put right there if there is anything. If they have not prepared properly, things could get nasty.
Huw Clayton
Acording to weatheronline.co.uk seasonal outlook we are in for a mixed summer with a european moonson end of june and start of july. As ever long terms forecasts are difficult if not impossible, but I have found this website quite good in the past.
I’m not convinced that would help. Heavy rain in June/July would top up the reservoirs, but with the ground so hard that might lead to the unfortunate double in some areas, particularly the SE, of flash floods and a major drought. Remember, summer rain by and of itself will not top up the aquifers – they need to have rain to soften the ground first.
[...] many people, and for me this morning is one of those times. Four months ago, almost to the day, I wrote this: Even apart from its economic effects, hot weather, by depriving people of sleep and by forcing [...]